Iran likely to respond to renewed US strikes more forcefully than last time , experts say

stripes.com · Feb 23, 2026 · Collected from GDELT

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A missile is fired during a test at Yuma Proving Ground in Yuma, Ariz., in April 2025. Iran maintains the Middle East’s largest stockpile of missile and drone systems, according to a March 2025 Defense Intelligence Agency report, as faltering diplomatic efforts and a buildup of military assets heighten concerns about potential conflict in the region. (Jamie Southerland/U.S. Army) When Iran retaliated for American strikes on its nuclear sites last year, it launched a relatively modest counterattack, even going so far as to give the U.S. a heads-up before firing missiles at Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar. But if the once-again simmering tensions between the countries produce another U.S. strike, Tehran has signaled that it’s ready to take the gloves off this time, experts say. “I think now we’re moving towards a world in which the regime is at least publicly signaling … that it will be fighting in a much less constrained manner than before,” said Behnam Ben Taleblu, senior director of the Iran program at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies. Faltering diplomatic talks and a buildup of military assets have the U.S. hurtling toward another potential conflict with Iran, putting the region and American allies on edge. President Donald Trump has repeatedly threatened to use force if a deal over Iran’s nuclear enrichment program is not made. He said Thursday that he would give Tehran 10 to 15 days to meet U.S. terms. The U.S. has sent dozens of fighter jets and refueling aircraft to the Middle East, along with an armada of warships that now includes the USS Gerald R. Ford Carrier Strike Group, which entered the Mediterranean Sea on Friday. Iranian leaders believe that at this point they must inflict serious harm to stop further U.S. attacks, said Ali Vaez, director of the Iran program at the International Crisis Group. “They’ve come to the conclusion that the only way to stop this cycle of bombing Iran every few months really requires that they draw blood and they inflict significant harm on the U.S. and Israel,” he said. The U.S. still enjoys military dominance over Iran, which has been weakened in recent months by near-collapse of its economy, internal protests and the loss of allies like ousted Syrian dictator Bashar Assad and former Venezuelan leader Nicolas Maduro, who was captured in a U.S. military raid last month. Iran likely would seek to widen a war with the U.S. to deter prolonged American military involvement, analysts say, adding that it has the tools to do so. Among the strongest are short- and medium-range ballistic missiles, which can carry nuclear or chemical weapons and have a range of up to 1,864 miles, according to the Congressional Research Service. Iran has the largest stockpiles of missiles and drone systems in the Middle East, a March 2025 report from the U.S. Defense Intelligence Agency said. Tehran also has other long-range strike systems in place, including cruise missiles and anti-ship missiles that could threaten U.S. assets and maritime shipping. Those weapons could more broadly affect energy infrastructure in the Persian Gulf, Taleblu said. Iran’s previous responses to U.S. strikes have been largely symbolic and have not succeeded in preventing more threats from the U.S., Vaez said. After Trump ordered the killing of top Iranian Gen. Qassem Soleimani in early 2020, Tehran responded by firing a dozen ballistic missiles at Iraqi bases housing U.S. troops, but that attack caused no American casualties. Similarly, Iran’s response to Operation Midnight Hammer in June was notably restrained. The only damage from it was to one geodesic dome housing communication equipment used by American troops in Qatar. Iran has spent the past three decades designing weapons specifically to target the U.S. military, especially its naval assets, Vaez said. The country’s arsenal of missiles, underwater drones, submarines, torpedoes and speedboats was developed to attack U.S. warships in and around Iranian waters, he said. The nearby U.S. bases in Kuwait, Qatar and Bahrain are also easier to strike than Israel, which is more than 1,000 miles from Iran. And even though the recent amassing of warships in the Persian Gulf and Arabian Sea is a symbol of American military power, it also provides Iran a very “target-rich environment,” Vaez said. Iranian officials have said the country has no interest in initiating a war but will respond decisively and proportionately if the U.S. strikes. “In such circumstances, all bases, facilities and assets of the hostile force in the region would constitute legitimate targets in the context of Iran’s defensive response,” Iran’s ambassador to the United Nations, Amir Saeid Iravani, said Thursday in a letter to the U.N. Security Council.