Hungarians want to kick Viktor Orban out of power . Is he planning a coup to stop them ?

yahoo.com · Mar 1, 2026 · Collected from GDELT

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Hungarian strongman Viktor Orbán is on the ropes. He is unpopular and appears to be planning to invalidate his likely loss in the upcoming election – effectively launching a coup to hold on to power.I was a member of the Hungarian parliament, and saw how Orbán built a system intended to be immune to democratic accountability. That he seems to be preparing a coup is increasingly understood in Budapest and in the region.He has already set the stage, by conjuring up an imagined threat from Ukraine. On February 7, he stated that “Ukraine is our enemy”. Then this week, as the gap in the polls between his party and the new Tisza party widened, he went further, ordering the army to key energy infrastructure facilities. It seems that Orbán could be intending to blame Ukraine for some form of incident, despite zero evidence for such an outrageous claim.I certainly doubt that Orbán and his Fidesz party intend to tolerate a loss just because voters reject them after 16 years in government and 16 years of stagnation. It’s been four years since Orbán’s friend and ally, Vladimir Putin, invaded neighbouring Ukraine, a country that includes a vulnerable Hungarian community in Transcarpathia.The Fidesz propaganda machine can magnify any incident, including a manufactured one, into a national trauma within a few hours. In such a situation, the danger of them staging or deliberately exploiting a “security crisis” before the April elections is very real, whether in Transcarpathia or somewhere along the Hungarian-Ukrainian border.A suspicious incident or an explosion, the circumstances of which are unclear, and the government media is ready to write it all into the pre-written script: “Brussels-backed Ukrainian provocateurs”, “Hungarians are in danger, and only we can protect you.” And so on.Trump has endorsed OrbanThe wider context is not positive for a peaceful transition of power either. Over more than a decade, the election system has been subverted, state institutions have been captured, and Orbán has gained almost total control over the media and state resources. The bare framework of democracy is intact, but it has been hollowed out. Voters face a system that erects every barrier to fair elections, and which, if it feels its own rule is in danger, can easily decide that even those rigged rules are suddenly no longer valid.Orbán might feel confident that he can count on support from abroad, too. Donald Trump, the US president, has already endorsed him. Marco Rubio, the US secretary of state, was clear: Trump “is deeply committed to [Orbán’s] success”.Russian dictator Vladimir Putin has effectively endorsed Orbán, coming on top of the cheap oil and gas Moscow has provided Hungary in recent years.Xi Jinping, the Chinese president, praised Orbán for Hungary’s “unequivocal and firm support for China on issues related to Taiwan, Hong Kong and human rights.” (Orbán’s government has been amply rewarded by the Chinese Communist Party for its services to that dictatorship.)Marco Rubio said Donald Trump ‘is deeply committed to [Orbán’s] success’ - Robert Nemeti/Getty ImagesOrbán is also converting every EU decision into a backdrop for his own re-election campaign. Some in the EU still talk about his vetoes as if they were just bargaining chips: he will go along for a little more money or a few favours. The picture is darker than that. Each Orbán veto over the EU serves three purposes at once:It sends a message to his core voters that he “defends Hungary against Europe”; It maintains a phony “war or peace” narrative, smearing the opposition as somehow ”favouring war.” And it placates Moscow and Washington by making Orbán the single person who can paralyse the decisions of a 27-member union.For Putin, every Hungarian veto in Brussels is a treasure, because it buys him time, divides the EU, and sends the message that there is someone within Europe who is working to undermine European defence. For Trump, Orbán is both a model and a wedge: a model for how to turn an EU member state into a one-party state, and a wedge to divide the EU on sanctions, defence, and the rule of law. The Hungarian prime minister is also living proof that it’s possible to hollow out a democracy from within while maintaining the barest trappings of elections. For Xi, Orbán is a foothold for his Communist kleptocracy inside the EU.So the Hungarian elections in April are not just a domestic affair, which is why foreign actors – Putin, Trump, and Xi – take such interest in them. Is it possible to permanently occupy a member of the EU and Nato and then use it from within to undermine European defence? Powers outside the EU want a weak, divided, and distrustful European Union that is incapable of defending itself. That, in the end, is Victor Orbán’s purpose.A slow coup d’etatWhat Orbán has been building for 16 years is not just an “illiberal democracy,” as he calls it, but a slow, step-by-step coup to cement an absolute autocracy.The courts, the state-dominated media, the electoral system, public funds, EU funds, the central bank, and the public prosecutor’s office are all being deployed to ensure that they keep their grip on power. As a former member of the Hungarian parliament, I saw how laws were rewritten overnight; how decisions were made by a loyal bloc that never dissented; how independent institutions were dismantled; and how loyalty was rewarded, and criticism was met with total retaliation.This is not just “hard politics.” It is a coup in slow motion, not with tanks capturing parliament, but with already captured institutions that make the peaceful change of government virtually impossible. When such a system faces the prospect of real defeat, it can easily decide that the rules they already rigged are no longer sufficient.The stakes of the upcoming election are therefore not just about who gets the most votes. The question is whether those who write the rules, distribute the money, count the votes, and announce the results will be willing to tolerate a world where they are no longer in power. It’s about whether they will get away with falsifying or invalidating an election, and who stands to gain if they do.Zoltán Kész is a former centre-Right Hungarian MPTry full access to The Telegraph free today. Unlock their award-winning website and essential news app, plus useful tools and expert guides for your money, health and holidays.