Hamlet Protein CEO Erik Visser shares global animal nutrition outlook for 2026

thepoultrysite.com · Feb 23, 2026 · Collected from GDELT

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Visser projects slower growth and higher stakes for producers 23 February 2026 13 minute read Animal protein production will continue to grow in 2026, but not for all species. Poultry and aquaculture will keep momentum, while swine and ruminant production will decline.Geopolitics will continue to influence trade flows across the globe and disruptions impacting the entire supply chain can flair up anytime. The most important bilateral relationship to watch for will be the one between China and the US.Feed costs are expected to remain stable, allowing producers to invest in specialty ingredients and additives. Soybean meal (SBM) cost levels are forecast to remain stable. Nutritional strategies will become increasingly important in reaching the animal’s genetic potential.African Swine Fever (ASF) and Avian Influenza (HPAI) continue to be a threat to producers worldwide, who will increase their focus on farm management, bio-security measures, and nutrition to minimize risks.Regulation in the EU and USA has the potential to have a strong impact on feed, feed ingredients, and feed additive producers alike, and EU regulation specifically may affect the competitive positioning of European producers versus their global peers.Sustainability efforts of the industry will move beyond a focus on compliance towards integral risk management strategies that not only mitigate for climate related risks but seek to adapt business models.Geopolitics: Risks remainAfter the initial shock of the 2025 US trade policies, the markets seem to have stabilized. Do not be fooled by that, as geopolitical risks will remain significant and disruptions can flair up anytime.The question is no longer whether the US will use tariffs as a political tool, but to what extent, and what the knock-on effects of those tariffs will be.A challenge to the so called “reciprocal" tariffs on goods from individual countries and for levies imposed on China, Canada and Mexico tied to the flow of fentanyl into the U.S. was argued before the U.S. Supreme Court in late 2025, and a decision is expected in early 2026.Watch especially for the impact of the US – China trade relation on soy- and pork exports from the US, and its implications for global markets. The current trade agreement will expire in the second half of 2026 and, combined with the US midterm elections coming up in November, this may be enough motivation for the current US administration to reach a deal with China.The free trade deal with the two largest U.S. trading partners - Canada and Mexico - is up for review in 2026 amid uncertainty over whether the US will let the pact expire or try to renegotiate key provisions.The European Union will assess its trading relationship with China, and tariffs or other measures will be considered as options to address the growing imbalance in their trading ties.Global economy: Watch AI, China and USCurrent projections will see 2026 deliver stronger economic growth than expected earlier: +3%, mostly driven by China (+5%) and the US (+2,5%). Growth in the Eurozone will be more sluggish at +1,2%.Watch out for the large stock that was built by US companies in 2025, to avoid the impact of increasing import rates, that reduced the inflationary effect of the US trade policies. If we see a delayed effect in 2026 – and that effect is strong enough - then this could impact growth rates.Artificial Intelligence (AI) may not impact the real economy to the same extent it is already playing a role on the financial markets. Large investments and strong valuations will be affected in a possible market correction. At the same time advancing technology will impact labor markets and productivity and as such affect economic growth.While China has grown to become a dominant player on the global political and economic stage, the less predictable US trade and foreign policies create an opportunity for the European Union – and the EURO – to grow its global influence.Animal protein: Slowing growthGrowth in animal production will slow down in 2026 to less than 0,5%. While poultry and aquaculture will continue to grow, swine and ruminant production will stabilize or show a slight decline.Producers will face tighter margins due to disease, higher trade costs, and trading down by price-sensitive consumers.Efficiency will be the name of the game, and nutrition will play a key role in reaching the animal’s genetic potential.Markets: Mixed pictureThe global demand for animal protein is being supplied through local production and imports. Disease outbreaks, regulation, and trade policies are key factors in determining where production will take place. Whenever a market disruption takes place, one of the competing export blocks will quickly step up production volumes to benefit from the emerging opportunity.Europe will see pork and poultry production grow, but political pressure on agriculture may cause volumes to shift from NWE to CEE. North America will see modest growth in swine, while poultry will accelerate. Southeast Asia is set to deliver increased pork production, but African Swine Fever remains a challenge. Poultry production will see strong growth.Following government mandated herd contraction at the end of 2025. China will see its swine production decrease,South America will see growth across all species, primarily driven by Brazil. The EU-Mercosur interim trade agreement may create growth opportunities for beef and poultry exporters.Multinational companies that offer a diversified product portfolio, service a broad range of species, and have market share in all regions, are best positioned to deal with changing market conditions and shifting consumer preferences.Feed costs: StableFeed costs can account for up to 70% of total production costs, that is why it is such an important KPI to track.An intensification of the La Niña phenomenon could reduce crop yields in South America – particularly soy and maize – and impact anchovy fishing in Peru, which is essential for producing fishmeal and fish oil.Feed costs are expected to remain stable, or trend moderately lower, in 2026, allowing producers to invest in specialty ingredients and feed additives inclusion to drive the health and performance of their animals.A potential risk could come from deteriorating trade relations between EU or US on one side and China on the other side. As China produces more than 70% of the world’s vitamins, and many critical amino acids, including more than 75% of the world’s lysine and more than 25% of methionine, access to Chinese suppliers is critically important for feed producers.SBM: StableSoybean Meal (SBM) has evolved from a traditional agricultural crop into a global strategic instrument.Although production reached record levels in 2025, pricing not only relates to available quantity, as politics, sustainability, and traceability are becoming ever more important.China is by far the biggest importer of soybeans and has a large crushing capacity. The trade relation with the US will determine whether their volume will be sourced from the US or Brazil. After China, Europe is the largest importer of soybeans and SBM, predominantly from South America. The EU’s own soybean harvest, all of it non-GM, is insufficient to serve the demands from the industry.The implementation of the EUDR, the strategic restructuring of U.S.–China trade relations, US and Brazilian biofuel policies, US farm subsidies, and logistical pressures in South America will define the soybean meal markets in 2026.Our current view is for price levels to remain stable in 2026.Ocean freight: Low predictabilityAfter years of unprecedented supply chain disruption – from the Covid-era chaos to the Red Sea crisis distortion – stability is not yet in sight.2026 Will see a strong influx of new vessels, increasing the global fleet capacity by as much as 5%. At the same time, the potential reopening of the Suez Canal will lead to short-term disruption.Couple that with the unpredictable nature of tariffs and volatility in pricing and availability is going to be the only certainty in the new year.Energy costs: Downward trend oil & gasGas and electricity are important cost factors in the production of fertilizers – resulting in an indirect impact on feed costs – and in the production of animal nutrition and feed specialties. Oil is an important driver for transportation costs and to produce certain feed commodities.2026 Will see pressure on oil and gas prices due to expected oversupply. Oil because of OPEC ending its voluntary production cuts and gas due to new liquefied gas (LNG) capacity being brought on stream. Electricity pricing is expected to see an upward trend, following increased demand.The ongoing war in Ukraine, an unstable ceasefire in the Middle East and the potential for further escalation in Venezuela will keep supply chains and energy security exposed to sudden disruptions. On the other hand, we could see Europe benefit from a cease to hostilities in Ukraine and normalization of energy supply from Russia.While the energy transition advances, it does so at a slower pace following recent policy changes and lack of storage capacity in major markets. Still wind and solar energy are set to become ever more important in the energy mix.Labor market: Risk of shortage of skilled workersIn 2026 the industry’s work force will continue to shrink. A rising number of retirements, slowdown in attracting new talent, and restrictive migration policies will put pressure on animal protein and animal nutrition producers alike.Automation may be part of the answer, but the industry will need to focus on highlighting the importance of producing safe feed for food and how young professionals can contribute to feeding a growing global demand.Feed mills, farms, and integrators alike should have a strategy in place to cover their future work force, invest in hiring, training, and retaining skilled workers, and offer compensation packages that allows them to compete with