Germany is aging and shrinking much faster than expected

DW News · Feb 28, 2026 · Collected from RSS

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The figure 1.35 should set off alarm bells for policymakers: on average, each woman in Germany now has just 1.35 children — a record low, and far below the 2.1 needed to keep the population stable. These latest calculations from the Federal Statistical Office underscore the scale of the demographic challenge. In 2025, about 650,000 children were born in Germany, down from around 677,000 the year before. In both years, around one million people died. By December 31, 2025, the population stood at approximately 83.5 million — 100,000 fewer than at the end of 2024. Having a family remains important to people, emphasized C. Katharina Spiess, director of the Federal Institute for Population Research, during a Berlin presentation of demographic statistics. "People still want children," she noted, "and the question is why are they not having them?" If the wishes expressed by 19 to 29-year-olds in surveys were fulfilled, Germany's birth rate would rise to 2.4, Spiess noted. "A sense of security is essential for realizing the desire to have children. The succession of crises has prevented many people from turning that wish into reality." Are children a poverty risk? Beyond the general unease created by global instability, families face very tangible obstacles: a shortage of housing, rising rents, and unreliable childcare. The fear of slipping financially is growing, since parents often have to cut back their working hours. More and more, people say that in Germany, they simply can no longer afford to have children. Once poor, always poor?,To view this video please enable JavaScript, and consider upgrading to a web browser that supports HTML5 video The Federal Statistical Office regularly projects how Germany's population will develop over the coming decades. Policymakers and businesses rely on these figures, since the number of people living in the country — and their age profile — has profound consequences for its future. The latest forecast extends to 2070. What sets it apart from earlier projections is the finding that the population could shrink by around 10%. The report concludes that immigration will not offset that decline.'Boomers' are retiring A smaller population on its own would not necessarily be a problem. The real challenge is that Germany is aging. While the number of children and young people is declining, the number of the very old is set to rise sharply, explains Karsten Lummer, head of the Population Department at the Federal Statistical Office. Right now, the so‑called baby boomers are moving into retirement. They are the generations born in the 1960s, when each year saw more than a million births. After that, the birth rate dropped dramatically. "Already today, there are 33 people of retirement age for every 100 of working age," Lummer points out. By 2035, roughly one in four people in Germany will have passed the standard retirement age of 67. By 2050, the number of those over 80 will climb from just over six million today to about nine million. Social system reaching its limits Those figures are alarming economists and social scientists alike. "The sharp decline and aging of the population must already be factored into political decisions with long-term consequences, for example, in healthcare and care for the elderly," emphasizes Joachim Ragnitz, an economist at the ifo Institute in Dresden. He warns that the pension system is also coming under severe strain, especially as the trend points toward a growing shortage of workers. Karsten Lummer of the Federal Statistical Office puts it even more bluntly: "We have a low birth rate, but a social system that still behaves as if we had a high one." The question of what that system should look like in the future should have been answered long ago. "We missed that chance," he says. Currently, about 40% of people over the age of 80 require some form of care. As the number of the very old continues to rise, demand for workers in the care sector will grow accordingly. At present, around 280,000 people are employed in outpatient care for the elderly. By 2049, Lummer calculates, the system will need as many as 690,000. Who's going to care for Germany's aging population?To view this video please enable JavaScript, and consider upgrading to a web browser that supports HTML5 video Immigration into the labor market In recent years, low birth rates and emigration from Germany have been offset by immigration. Since 1990, the country's population has grown steadily, with a total of eleven million people moving to Germany. Numbers were especially high in 2015 and 2016, and again after 2022, driven by the wars in Syria and Ukraine. Yet despite these influxes, immigrants have rarely entered the labor market quickly. Martin Werding, one of Germany's so‑called economic sages who advises the federal government, sees that as a failure of policy. "The German approach is very much focused on language acquisition and education, often spending too much time verifying existing qualifications rather than recognizing them," explains the economics professor. Ten years after the migration wave of 2015 and 2016, two-thirds of refugees are now employed, according to a study by the Institute for Employment Research. Among the mostly female refugees from Ukraine, however, the figure is still only around 31%. More than a million Ukrainians now live in Germany, making them the second-largest non‑German group after the Turks. "They have brought about a profound shift in Germany's population structure," observes population expert C. Katharina Spiess. She argues that society must now confront a crucial question: "Can we count on them, do they intend to stay?" Twice a year, Spiess's institute conducts surveys. "The intention of Ukrainians to stay has risen sharply, with 42% now saying they want to remain," she reports. At the same time, uncertainty within the group is growing. "More people today say they don't know. And among children and young people, many say they cannot imagine staying here forever." Germany looks to India to address skilled labor shortageTo view this video please enable JavaScript, and consider upgrading to a web browser that supports HTML5 video The Federal Statistical Office cannot make precise forecasts about the future. That is why its population projections run through scenarios with different sets of numbers, based on the three demographic components of birth rate, life expectancy, and net migration. Yet in one respect the scenarios are the same: Germany's problems can only be eased by immigration, not solved. The workforce Germany needs — and the corresponding contributors to health and pension funds — cannot realistically be supplied through migration alone. Keeping older people fit for as long as possible is, according to Karsten Lummer of the Federal Statistical Office, the very least that can be done. "We can hope for medical progress," he says, but he also offers immediate advice: people should exercise more, and significantly cut back on alcohol consumption and smoking. This article was originally written in German. While you're here: Every Tuesday, DW editors round up what is happening in German politics and society. You can sign up here for the weekly email newsletter, Berlin Briefing.