Fete over : the hard arithmetic choices now

trinidadexpress.com · Mar 1, 2026 · Collected from GDELT

Full Article

Carnival has ended. The music has faded. And as an old refrain reminds us: fete over, back to work.That line is not a moral lecture. It is arithmetic.Once the celebrations are done, the country still has to produce, export, earn foreign exchange, pay salaries, and meet its obligations. Sentiment does not finance deficits. Optimism does not substitute for output.The IMF’s most recent Article IV mission struck a balanced tone. It acknowledged that the non-energy sector is supporting recovery, inflation remains contained, and the financial system remains stable. But it also warned of “persistent headwinds” and emphasised that sustaining growth will require continued reform efforts to strengthen resilience and support diversification. It further noted that foreign exchange pressures and structural constraints remain significant considerations in the medium term.Governments highlight the encouraging lines. Citizens live with the harder ones.A recent article in the daily newspaper captured the lived reality of rising fees, penalties and costs affecting households and small businesses. This is not an argument against compliance or order. A serious country cannot function on permanent exceptions. But adjustment without preparation, sequencing and communication becomes combustible—particularly in a plural society where confidence depends not only on policy design, but on a shared belief that burdens are fairly applied.In a society as diverse as ours, perception matters. When citizens question whether sacrifice is equitably distributed even if policy intent is neutral, social cohesion weakens. Adjustment must therefore be visibly fair, carefully explained and consistently applied.This is where the national conversation has faltered.The country entered the last election cycle with elevated expectations. Slogans implied abundance. Yet international reports available well before the polls pointed to structural constraints: declining gas output, narrow export dependence, foreign exchange imbalances and rising recurrent pressures.In other words, the jar was not full. We cannot distribute what we do not earn.When expectations are raised in the face of publicly available data pointing to constraint, the adjustment phase becomes more difficult. Citizens feel not only the tightening, but the contrast between promise and reality.Take the issue of the public sector wage bill. In a recent article, Professor Roger Hosein warned that wage settlements could push the Government’s wage bill toward $11.25 billion. Workers deserved resolution after protracted negotiations. But wage increases are permanent commitments.What makes this moment delicate is context.If national income growth is constrained and households are tightening their belts, overall expenditure discipline must reflect that environment. A rising wage bill as a share of total spending, without a parallel productivity framework, becomes harder to defend. Relief disconnected from output risks future compression, particularly in an economy where growth remains fragile.As Mariano Browne suggested, the real challenge in public policy is narrowing the gap between stated objectives and measurable achievement. That narrowing requires sequencing, coherence and discipline—not only intention.If manufacturing and services are expected to anchor employment growth and foreign exchange generation, policy must reinforce—not undermine—their competitiveness.Without prior consultation and with little window for adjustment, the price of natural gas to Light Industrial Companies moved from US$3.50 to US$5.30 per MMBtu—a 75% increase. Yet this group represents less than 1% of NGC’s revenue while employing over 9,000 citizens and forming a substantial share of the non-energy manufacturing base.Energy is not a marginal input; it is foundational. The increase has reportedly eroded margins, narrowed export viability, and in some cases made it more expensive to manufacture cement in Trinidad than in Jamaica. At the same time, imported cement is entering our market from jurisdictions where manufacturers benefit from structured industrial support. That widening asymmetry between local production and supported imports is troubling.Historically, the “power tranche” was used to preserve industrial competitiveness. The issue is not preferential pricing. It is strategic alignment. If diversification is a national objective, energy policy must support it. Otherwise, we risk weakening sectors that both generate foreign exchange and sustain employment.The IMF’s message—read fully—is not alarmist. It is conditional. Recovery exists, but within limits. Structural weaknesses remain. Sustained progress depends on reform discipline and credible policy alignment.Which brings us back to the central issue.After doing the popular thing, responsible leadership requires doing the necessary thing—carefully, transparently and in phases.In such an environment, national leadership requires three things.First, honesty about constraints. Citizens can accept difficult measures if they understand the necessity and see fairness in their application.Second, sequencing. Adjustment should be phased, with productive sectors protected and empowered—not simultaneously burdened.Third, alignment. Wage policy, energy pricing, diversification strategy, fiscal consolidation and export promotion cannot operate in silos. They must form part of a coherent programme.A country can survive sacrifice. Trinidad and Tobago has done so before. But sacrifice must feel shared—and tied to a visible pathway forward.Politics can delay adjustment, re-frame it, or redistribute its impact. But it cannot permanently override fiscal arithmetic.Fete over, back to work.The work now is not merely balancing accounts. It is restoring credibility—by aligning promise, policy and production within the realities we have long known.“In a plural society, adjustment must not only be necessary—it must be visibly fair.”Robert Le Hunte is a former executive director of Republic Bank Limited , and a former managing director of ANSA Bank Limited. He is currently engaged in financial and policy consultancy across the Caribbean and Africa.