Farrer byelection : Will Sussan Ley seat that up for grabs be a protest vote against the two - party duopoly ?

smh.com.au · Feb 27, 2026 · Collected from GDELT

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Like many Australians, dairy farmer Nick Flanagan finds his WhatsApp group chat is a good barometer of what people are thinking about politics.The father of three runs a dairy farm outside Finley – a small town in the nation’s food bowl, about 660 kilometres south-west of Sydney and 280 kilometres north of Melbourne. Here, in the federal electorate of Farrer, frustration has been brewing for a long time.Flanagan mentions one of the men in his WhatsApp chat – a second-generation farmer, like himself. “His father and him were both big Nationals followers. If you wanted an argument in the pub, he’d be the first one to step up,” Flanagan says.“He defected to One Nation, maybe two or three months ago. He’s a registered member now.”Nick Flanagan, next to the Mulwala Canal near his property outside of Finley.Alex EllinghausenFor farmers such as Flanagan, the list of resentments includes labour shortages, penalty rates and unreliable energy. In town, it is a shortage of childcare, health services and housing. And in this irrigation district, north of the Murray River, there’s another flashpoint: water management.Water is an issue that provokes farmers and the communities that flourish or flail based on their success. Many feel betrayed by long-running government interventions: it started when water became a tradable commodity under John Howard, continued with the Murray Darling Basin plan under leaders of all stripes, and escalated with buybacks under Labor.Through all this, Sussan Ley has been repeatedly elected as Farrer’s representative for the Liberals in Canberra. Now that her resignation is forcing a byelection, a switch has flicked. It’s not what Nationals leader David Littleproud or new Liberal leader Angus Taylor want to see.“The majority of guys that I talk to would be like: ‘Yeah, f--- the Nationals, they’ve lost us.’ And that’s from being ineffective. Twenty-five years of nothing,” Flanagan says. “This has traditionally always been a Liberal-Nationals seat, and people have just lost any confidence in them.”This disillusionment runs far deeper than the last nine months, although recent Coalition chaos in Canberra has certainly compounded it. “They’re like: these guys have got no direction. They’ve got no leadership. What the hell are they doing? Let’s try Pauline [Hanson]. That’s pretty as cut and dry, as I see it.”The seat of Farrer has had four representatives in 77 years: three Liberals and one National, former deputy leader Tim Fischer. Ley won it when Fischer retired in 2001.The sprawling electorate, at 126,563 square kilometres, fills out the south-western corner of NSW. Its largest population centre, Albury, is increasingly like inner suburban Sydney and Melbourne. But as you follow the Murray and Murrumbidgee rivers inland, sheep and wheat properties give way to irrigation. The areas around Griffith and Deniliquin produce vast quantities of rice, fruit, wine grapes and almonds that feed the eastern seaboard. Head further west, and small communities give way to desert.The politics of Farrer change with geography. The Liberals have typically dominated Albury, where about half the electorate lives. The rural and farming lands of the electorate – the other half – have been considered Nationals strongholds, although it’s been seven years since the party has even represented them at a state level.Yet the second-generation farmer, the young doctor working in Albury, and the migrant business owner in Griffith all say the same thing, as we drive around the electorate to ask about the byelection.They feel betrayed and neglected; that nobody has listened to them. The way they deliver this message oscillates between exasperation, frustration and fury, but it is broadly consistent: the region has been ignored and it’s time for something different.Almost half the electorate lives in the city of Albury, where all booths were won by an independent at the last election. But the politics of Farrer shift with its geography – and the battle outside Albury could shape the result.Alex EllinghausenHow this manifests at the ballot box, however, won’t be so simple. In usual circumstances, the byelection would be a rare showdown between the Coalition partners – with the seat vacant, they can compete against each other.As incumbents, the Liberals should be frontrunners, although party sources concede it will be challenging. The Nationals also know people are fed up, and will pitch themselves as the strongest alternative to “lone wolves in city centric parties claiming they can do anything for us,” says Gabrielle Coupland, the party’s acting chair in Farrer.But with the Coalition polling at historic lows, the byelection will be a test of their relevance. The battle is morphing into a four or five-cornered contest that threatens to relegate major parties further down the pile with a messy exchange of preferences.The question is whether the Liberals will prevail in Albury against Michelle Milthorpe, a Climate 200-backed independent who has already started campaigning – and if the Nationals can pull ahead in the west while One Nation is ascending.Independent state MP Helen Dalton, who holds an overlapping NSW seat she won from the Nationals, is also toying with running – a wildcard that would make the race even more complex.Who, from all those, comes out on top when preferences are counted?Campaigns will now spring into action – Ley announced her resignation on Friday – and a date will be set for the byelection. The Liberals, Nationals and One Nation will move quickly to announce their candidates, and Dalton will make her decision.Australians watching preferences flow in Farrer for the first time will try to decode what they say about this country and the status of conservative and centre-right politics, and Taylor, Littleproud and Hanson will be graded on the results.For the 124,000 people casting a ballot, however, the contest will be fought over local issues, shaped by local candidates, and a rare chance to send their message to the broader nation.Volunteers in Milthorpe shirts are already handing out flyers in Albury’s city centre. Cardboard cut-outs of orange emus are appearing around town.These were common sights just nine months ago, when the teacher and advocate against child sex abuse ran as an independent in last year’s federal election.Milthorpe came second, helping force Ley to preferences for the first time in 25 years, and cutting her lead to 6.2 per cent. More importantly, she beat Ley in every voting booth in Albury and its suburbs, which have a population of about 60,000.Michelle Milthorpe’s campaign has been the first out the door, starting ahead in what will be a messy contest.Alex EllinghausenIt’s a strong starting point for Milthorpe, who is backed by the Climate 200 fundraising vehicle that has helped send climate-minded independents to Canberra.She was out the door within hours of Ley saying she would resign two weeks ago, vowing to fight again. Her volunteers stayed in touch, expecting Ley might not last the term. They’ve activated quickly: reopening a shopfront on Albury’s main street, now decorated with the orange bunting they’ve kept since May. So have Climate 200 and the Regional Voices Fund, which donated $60,000 to kickstart the campaign.The issue that propelled Milthorpe’s success in Albury last time was the cash-strapped local hospital – jointly funded by Victoria and NSW, it reports to Victoria, and the federal government has kept out. It’s supposed to cater to 300,000 people, but bed shortages, surgery waitlists and staff burnout have hampered its capacity. Stories of charity funds spent on artwork, whistleblower complaints and exits of high-profile doctors have fuelled a sense of scandal. The hospital is being redeveloped, but Milthorpe says it’s not enough: she wants a new hospital on a new site.Dr Lachlan McKeeman, a GP who has protested the redevelopment, has seen two families lose loved ones from cardiac arrest because they couldn’t get help in time; certain services don’t operate outside business hours. “One was lost on the way to Wagga, one was lost on the way to Melbourne,” he says. McKeeman thinks federal leaders are letting the states get away with “absolutely appalling behaviour”.A campaign barbecue for Michelle Milthorpe campaigners, who are mobilising in Albury.Alex EllinghausenHe is preparing to volunteer in his orange Milthorpe shirt, although he won’t vote in the byelection — he lives in Wodonga. The campaign is drawing in plenty of Victorians who are vested in the border town’s shared interests.On the southern side of the Murray, which becomes the federal seat of Indi, community independents are a mainstay: Cathy McGowan pioneered the movement when she beat the Liberals in 2013. It’s now held by independent Helen Haines, who endorsed Milthorpe with independent ACT Senator David Pocock on Friday.For the Milthorpe campaign, Indi is a blueprint. “An independent understands the community aspect of it,” McKeeman says. “To steal the Indi phrase, it’s politics done differently.”But Milthorpe will need to pull votes outside Albury to seize the seat. Her next focus is the town of Deniliquin – a southern irrigation hub, population about 7000 – where she was setting up a new office last week.As in much of the electorate’s west, these have traditionally been Liberal voters. Ley commanded between 60 and 70 per cent of the two-party vote against Labor in Deniliquin in 2022, although this dipped into the 50s against Milthorpe last year.That’s because of people like Rob Brown, a family business consultant. Brown loves the town he’s lived in since he was six months old – the gums that line the Edward, taking a dinghy up the river – but says the community is being challenged by the standard mix of regional service shortages: healthcare, childcare and housing.“All those things double up, or triple up. We have a lot of young people and professionals who want to come back to Deni, but if you can’t g