Fact Check Team : What would a war with Iran look like ?

okcfox.com · Feb 26, 2026 · Collected from GDELT

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WASHINGTON (TNND) — President Donald Trump’s State of the Union address broke his own record for length this week, running one hour and 47 minutes, but Iran received only a few minutes of direct attention. Still, the message in that short window was clear: the administration views Tehran as a continuing threat, and the military buildup in the region suggests officials are preparing for multiple scenarios.During the speech, Trump accused Iran of attempting to restart its nuclear ambitions despite previous U.S. strikes.“They were warned to make no future attempts to rebuild their weapons program, yet they continue and are at this moment again pursuing their sinister ambitions,” Trump said, according to the official transcript reported by The Associated Press.The president reiterated that while he would prefer a diplomatic solution, military force remains on the table if Iran moves toward developing a nuclear weapon.GENEVA, SWITZERLAND - FEBRUARY 17: People gather with Iranian flags and posters in support of Reza Pahlavi, son of Mohammad Reza Pahlavi, the deposed Shah of Iran outside the United Nations headquarters as delegations from the United States and Iran hold formal talks on Iran's nuclear program on February 17, 2026 in Geneva, Switzerland. This second-round of talks follow indirect talks in Oman earlier this month. (Photo by Sedat Suna/Getty Images)A regional war, not a contained fightSecurity analysts say any direct conflict would likely expand beyond a simple U.S.–Iran confrontation.Experts at the Institute for National Security Studies note that Iran could retaliate against U.S. allies rather than Washington directly. One scenario outlined in their analysis suggests Tehran could launch missile or drone attacks on Israel to impose costs without triggering immediate full-scale U.S. escalation. A broader conflict would almost certainly draw in Israel and could involve logistical or defensive support from other Western partners.Iran, meanwhile, would be expected to rely heavily on its regional proxy network, including Hezbollah in Lebanon, militias in Iraq and Syria, and the Houthis in Yemen, which could spread fighting across multiple fronts in the Middle East, according to the Council on Foreign Relations’ Global Conflict Tracker.Russia and China would be unlikely to fight directly, but analysts say both could support Iran diplomatically or economically, increasing the geopolitical stakes of any conflict.Diplomacy underway, but military pressure risingThe administration is simultaneously pursuing negotiations. U.S. envoy Steve Witkoff and presidential adviser Jared Kushner are expected to meet with Iranian representatives in Geneva, even as the Pentagon positions what officials describe as one of the largest U.S. military shows of force in the region in decades.But some foreign-policy analysts warn the administration may be underestimating the risks of escalation.Writing for the Council on Foreign Relations, analyst Max Boot argues the U.S. military is quietly signaling that a war with Iran could become far longer and more dangerous than policymakers anticipate. Boot notes that Iran retains the ability to strike U.S. bases, target Gulf oil infrastructure, or disrupt shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, a chokepoint through which a large portion of the world’s oil supply passes. Any disruption there could send global energy prices surging.He also warns a prolonged campaign could strain U.S. precision-weapon stockpiles and divert resources from other global priorities, without guaranteeing that Iran would capitulate or that Washington would have a clear exit strategy.History shows the risks of large-scale interventionThe last time the United States launched a full-scale invasion in the Middle East was in Iraq in 2003, when U.S. forces toppled Saddam Hussein and remained in the country for years.Since then, the U.S. has still used force in the region, including the fight against ISIS beginning in 2014, airstrikes in Yemen, and targeted operations against Iran-backed groups, but those campaigns have stopped short of formal declarations of war or major ground invasions.The human and financial costs of the Iraq War remain a major reference point. Estimates from Brown University’s Costs of War Project place the total price tag at more than $2 trillion, with over 4,400 American troops killed, roughly 32,000 wounded, and hundreds of thousands of Iraqi deaths.