Can China benefit from the US-Israel war with Iran?

DW News · Mar 2, 2026 · Collected from RSS

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China has condemned the ongoing US-Israel war against Iran and the killing of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, with Beijing calling it "a serious violation of Iran's sovereignty and security" which tramples "on the aims and principles of the UN Charter and the basic norms of international relations." Naturally, Chinese concerns reach beyond the respect for international law — Iran is one of China's most important suppliers of oil and natural gas. According to estimates, as much as 90% of Iranian oil production is exported to China, most of it via third countries, to avoid tough international sanctions on Iran. And since April 2025, Iranian oil exports have even been settled in renminbi, the Chinese currency, due to Iran being excluded from the international SWIFT payment system. Ties between China and Iran go beyond oil sales The ongoing conflict has also put the spotlight on the Strait of Hormuz, a key waterway that lies between Oman and Iran, and connects the Persian Gulf with the Gulf of Oman and the Arabian Sea. Strait of Hormuz: World's most critical oil chokepointTo view this video please enable JavaScript, and consider upgrading to a web browser that supports HTML5 video About 20% of the world's oil consumption, or some 20 million barrels of crude, condensate and fuels, is transported via the waterway every day. Around half of that goes to energy-hungry China. Beijing therefore views any long-term closure of the strait as a threat to its energy security. Since the US-Israeli attacks began over the weekend, commercial traffic through the waterway has virtually come to a halt. In addition to energy, Iran and China share close political ties. Iran has been a member of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), a security alliance led by China and Russia, since 2023, and a member of BRICS+, a grouping of the world's largest emerging economies, since 2024. The "blatant killing” of a sovereign head of state and incitement to regime change are unacceptable, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi said in a phone call with Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov on Sunday. He pointed out that the US-Israeli joint operation began even as US and Iranian officials were in the midst of negotiations to find a diplomatic solution. What is Iran's 'Axis of Resistance'?To view this video please enable JavaScript, and consider upgrading to a web browser that supports HTML5 video Merz says US tried diplomacy US allies Germany, France and the UK have not spoken out against the attack on Iran, choosing to jointly condemn the Iranian response instead. "The US spent weeks seeking a negotiated solution with Iran. However, in talks in Oman and Switzerland, the Iranian side did not agree to a comprehensive, reliable, and verifiable agreement to end its military nuclear program," German Chancellor Friedrich Merz said on Saturday. Iran has not committed to scaling back its ballistic missile program or to ending its destabilizing activities in the region and beyond, Merz added. Ahead of his incoming trip to Washington, the German chancellor refrained from directly criticizing the US and Israel, stressing that he did not want to lecture anyone. "Classifications under international law will have relatively little effect. This is all the more true when they remain largely inconsequential,” Merz said on Sunday.Is Iran protected by international law? Foreign Minister Johann Wadephul said the German government wants to examine whether this situation legally justifies launching an armed attack against Iran. However, for Christoph Safferling, an international law expert at the University of Erlangen-Nuremberg in Germany, international law is quite clear. "There is a comprehensive prohibition on the use of force. The territorial independence and political integrity of a sovereign state must be respected at all costs. And we do not see that here,” he told German public broadcaster ARD. "These air strikes attack Iran as a sovereign state and are therefore, first and foremost, contrary to international law.” The arguments put forward by the US could just as easily be used by Russia to justify its war against Ukraine, said Safferling, the international law expert. Global protests and celebrations follow Khamenei's deathTo view this video please enable JavaScript, and consider upgrading to a web browser that supports HTML5 video 'Law of the jungle' US-Israeli actions against Iran come weeks after the US military captured Venezuela's President Nicolas Maduro in an audacious raid and whisked him to New York to face drug-trafficking charges. Maduro's capture by the US also triggered concern in Beijing. "The year 2026 did not exactly get off to a good start,” Chinese President Xi Jinping said during his meeting with German Chancellor Merz last week. International conflicts are too deeply intertwined, Xi said, adding that the world is facing a turning point with dramatic upheavals. Now, against the volatile geopolitical backdrop, Beijing is warning against the "law of the jungle" and urging major powers not to "arbitrarily attack other countries based on their military superiority." China gets chance to boost its global image Beijing says it, unlike Washington, wants to strengthen the United Nations and boost its ties with Europe. In view of these ambitions, the US-Israel attack on Iran gives China a perfect opportunity to stir up sentiment against its biggest rival and thus challenge its claim to global leadership. The UN is supposed to ensure that the use of armed force in international affairs is governed by rules and not applied arbitrarily.Attacks on Iran trigger global Shiite protestsTo view this video please enable JavaScript, and consider upgrading to a web browser that supports HTML5 video However, the attack on Iran also gives China a different path to protect its interests. For example, if China were to apply Trump's arguments, Beijing would be allowed to cross the Taiwan Strait and attack the self-governed democratic island at any time, claiming self-defense. Beijing sees Taiwan as part of China and vows to bring the territory under its control, even by force if necessary. The key question seems to be the one of priorities in Beijing — China wants to present itself as a strong, dutiful nation that does not resort to force arbitrarily, hoping to improve its global image, but Chinese officials still may be tempted to take control of Taiwan by force. It remains to be seen which of its core interests will ultimately prevail. This article was originally written in German