Beyond oil and gas: Russia's nuclear leverage explained

DW News · Feb 26, 2026 · Collected from RSS

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In the wake of Russia's war in Ukraine, the West has moved to cut off Moscow's oil and gas revenues — from US President Donald Trump hitting India with tariffs for buying Russian oil to the European Union vowing to phase out Russian gas imports "once and for all" by November 2027. But one Russian energy sector has avoided major sanctions: nuclear power. "Nuclear is not nearly as big as the oil and gas business, so it hasn't received as much attention so far," said Sebastian Stier, author of the Russia Nuclear Interdependencies chapter in the World Nuclear Industry Status Report 2025. DW has analyzed data and spoken to experts to trace the current scope of Russia's influence in the nuclear energy sector beyond the country's own borders. Russia has been steadily expanding its global nuclear footprint through its state-owned nuclear corporation Rosatom and its subsidiaries. It not only provides financing or technological support, it also exports complete nuclear-power-plant solutions — from building infrastructure to supplying the core component, the Nuclear Steam Supply System, which drives power generation. "Russia has a strong interest in keeping this business going because it generates substantial revenue," Stier told DW. Rosatom's 2024 Performance report states that "revenue from overseas projects increased by 10% year on year to $18 billion (€15.5 billion)." That figure is dwarfed by the amount Russia generated from oil and gas. In 2024, despite sanctions, the country exported more than six times worth of that in oil and gas. Though financially modest relative to oil and gas exports, the role of Russia's nuclear sector cannot be judged solely on revenue. While Finland canceled a contract with Rosatom shortly after Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, elsewhere, Russian-backed nuclear projects continue, such as the Rooppur plant in Bangladesh, El Dabaa in Egypt and Balkhash in Kazakhstan. Construction has continued even inside the EU, at Hungary's Paks II plant as well as in a NATO member state, Turkey's Akkuyu facility. "That's the result of a long-term strategy to establish a strong foothold in these markets," Stier said. Russia is bringing more nuclear energy into the Global South Russia is actively pushing nuclear energy, even targeting countries with limited electricity demand, according to Hartmut Winkler, a professor of Physics at the University of Johannesburg and a contributing author in the World Nuclear Industry Status Report since 2023. In Africa, Rosatom signed a nuclear cooperation Memorandum of Understanding with Niger's military-led government in July 2025. Similar deals have been signed with Burkina Faso and Mali. These agreements are largely strategic, according to Winkler. "Russia has set up these cooperation agreements with the aim of someday building a nuclear power plant. But they're still very far down the line," he said. Forging new uranium supply chains with Russia instead of Western nations Beyond building nuclear power plants, Russia appears to have a strong interest in Africa's uranium — a crucial resource that, once enriched, powers nuclear reactors. In July 2025, for instance, Russia announced its intention to mine uranium in Niger, which exported all of its uranium to France in 2022 and 2023. "Our task is not just to participate in uranium mining, we must create an entire system for developing peaceful nuclear energy in Niger," said Russian Energy Minister Sergei Tsivilev during a visit to Niamey. Satellite view of the uranium mine near Arlit, Niger in February 2026.Image: Vertical52 These developments come as Sahel nations like Niger appear to reassess their relationships with former colonial power France and other Western nations, while exploring deeper energy ties with Russia. One example: Niger's Prime Minister Ali Mahaman Lamine Zeine accused France of "plundering" its resources at the United Nations General Assembly in September 2025. "Uranium has brought nothing but misery, pollution, rebellion, corruption and desolation to the people of Niger, and prosperity and power to the French," he said. Mark Hibbs, nonresident senior fellow at Carnegie's Nuclear Policy Program, who specializes in nuclear policy, said Russia markets itself as distinct from Western countries. "The Russians will be honest traders ... They will not try to force a political narrative on countries that are interested in their economic and technological development," he said. In September 2025, President Vladimir Putin reinforced this message during the World Atomic Week, expressing support for the nuclear ambitions of "countries in the Global South and East" and rejecting the notion of "technological colonialism." Hibbs explained that the former Soviet Union built a reservoir of expertise that Russia continues to leverage. "The Russian government, which reconstructed itself after the fall of the Soviet Union, understood that this was an asset that Russia could use to move itself forward," he said.Nuclear energy cooperations end up going beyond energy supply itself Buying nuclear facilities from Russia involves signing up for a long-term package of support and reliance that can last "at least four to six decades," according to Chia-Yun Po, a legal scholar specializing in arms control, nuclear nonproliferation and international law and an associate at Yale Law School. "Through this nuclear diplomacy, by engaging with foreign hosts, Russia would be maintaining a very long-term relationship with other governments." Winkler argues that Russia's expansion into these nuclear markets has influenced how other countries respond diplomatically to Moscow's foreign policy moves. "[In] countries where Russia is building a nuclear plant, it does give them a lot of leeway over such a country's foreign policy, because effectively, that means Russia holds a key to the electricity supply in that country." He pointed to how these countries voted at the United Nations following Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine: "They always tend to either abstain or certainly not take a position hostile to Russia." In March 2022, for example, China and Bangladesh abstained from a UN General Assembly resolution demanding that Russia withdraw from Ukraine. In April, Egypt joined Bangladesh in abstaining from a vote to suspend Russia from the UN Human Rights Council, while China voted against the suspension. Production start at Kolpino facility in 2022: Russia's Rosatom manufactures components for the El Dabaa Nuclear Power Plant in Egypt. It's the country's first nuclear power plant set to be built on the coast of the Mediterranean Sea, some 300km north-west from Cairo. The Russian-Egyptian agreement on a $30bn construction project was signed in 2015.Image: Alexei Bashkirov/Strana Rosatom-Atom-Pressa/TASS/dpa/picture alliance However, abstentions and votes in favor do not necessarily reflect implicit support for Russia or full support for Ukraine. Hungary voted to condemn Russia. But Prime Minister Viktor Orban vocally opposes EU sanctions against Moscow. In January 2023, for example, he said in an interview with Hungarian state radio that Hungary would block any EU sanctions on Russia that target the nuclear sector. Russia's use of nuclear cooperation as a diplomatic tool also extends to major powers, including the United States. In the 2000s and early 2010s, the US and Russia struck several post-Cold War nuclear agreements, most notably the 2010 New START treaty signed by then-US President Barack Obama and his Russian counterpart Dmitry Medvedev, which capped deployed strategic arsenals. But the relationship has since unraveled. After Russia's annexation of Crimea in 2014 and its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, nuclear agreements were suspended, abandoned or allowed to lapse. Russia's grip on enriched uranium Russia's nuclear reach isn't only reflected in the number of countries it has nuclear agreements with. Moscow also provides a critical part of the nuclear energy chain: enriched uranium, the fuel that powers reactors. Between 2013 and 2023, Moscow exported $20.5 billion of enriched uranium. The United Kingdom and the Netherlands came in a distant second and third, with $10.6 billion and 9.5 billion, respectively. This dominance gives Russia considerable leverage because securing nuclear fuel is a multi-step process. Any nuclear energy company has to "buy uranium in some countries in the world, then they have to find a company that enriches them, and then they have to find a company that produces fuel elements for them, according to Stier. "All these processes are very long-term ... that can't be changed within 1-3 years," he said. Western countries are trying to cut their dependence on Russia's nuclear fuel Po said the US acknowledges that it has been "heavily dependent on foreign sources", including Russia. Stier pointed out that Western countries — like the US — are actively taking steps to end this reliance. In September 2024, the US, for example, announced the plan to build a new uranium enrichment facility in Tennessee. A law banning the import of uranium from Russia came into effect in August 2024. But that doesn't mean the US has completely weaned itself off Russia. Waivers until the end of 2027 ensure that critical reactor fuel remains available during the shift away from Moscow's supply. Untangling itself from the Russian nuclear supplies is also a challenge for the EU. On January 26, the European Commission (EC) announced the latest plan to end import of energy from Russia. It laid out "a regulation to prohibit imports of Russian gas" and mentioned the plan to "submit a legislative proposal at the beginning of 2026 to prohibit imports of Russian oil." But the language for Russia's nuclear sector seems less ambitious. The EC noted that "the aim would be to replace Russian nuclear fuel, the last remaining Russian energy source still imported to the EU, with fuel from European sources where possible."