Better the devil you know : what Gorton and Denton voters say about by - election

labourlist.org · Feb 26, 2026 · Collected from GDELT

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Focus groups ahead of today’s nail-biting by-election in Gorton and Denton give an insight into Labour voters who are being swayed by the Green Party and Reform. The sessions, conducted by the Good Growth Foundation last Sunday, exposed frustration with the pace of change from the government, but also apprehension at the credibility of the two populist parties. In the two sessions of 2024 Labour voters considering either the Greens or Reform, the cost of living was raised as a top issue, with both groups united by a perceived unfairness in welfare spending and that working households have been overlooked. The NHS was also a key issue for the participants, expressing the high expectations following Labour’s victory and disappointment on the pace and visibility of change. Voters considering Reform also ranked illegal immigration as a top issue, with the driving emotional force of concern on the subject being around the cost of living. Appeal of the anti-establishment parties Among both groups, a desire for anti-mainstream politics was a pull factor among those considering either Reform or the Greens. While those tempted to back Reform said they felt they had already “tried” the main parties, they often explicitly said they do not want Nigel Farage running the country – but were willing to send a shock to the system by backing Reform in the by-election. One female 2024 Labour voter now considering voting Reform said: “I feel like it’s the only option. I feel like we’ve had all the rest.” For those considering the Green Party, participants expressed a desire to “send a message” to Labour not to take votes for granted and not to drift from their core voters. They also said the government had not delivered in office, and that a Green win would express their discontent. One participant tempted to support the Greens said: “I feel if Labour do get back in, it’ll just be ‘we were worried about nothing’. I want them to understand you’re actually on the ropes here.” READ MORE: ‘Unity or division’: Starmer’s message to voters in Gorton and Denton Burnham and Labour’s credibility Labour’s decision to block Andy Burnham’s potential candidacy for the by-election was a source of resentment for some participants in the focus groups. Voters saw the Greater Manchester Mayor as a rooted local figure who “gets Manchester”, while struggling to name Labour candidate Angeliki Stogia or recall specific contact. Voters considering backing the Greens also said Labour no longer appeared to offer a distinctive positive vision, and accused the party of “leaning more towards the right”. The Mandelson scandal was not cited in either focus group as a reason to avoid voting Labour. However, people who had historically associated “poor integrity” with the Conservatives now said they saw similar behaviour in Labour. One undecided Labour/Reform voter said: “It’s like they’ve chipped away at the one thing they had over the Tories, which was being a bit more honest. Now it’s ‘they’re all as bad as each other’ – and you just pick the least worst.” READ MORE: ‘I was wrong on the doorstep in Gorton and Denton. I, and all of us, need to listen properly’ ‘Labour have always been for the working class’ In Labour’s favour, however, the party was seen as the safest option for the NHS – even among critics – and an underlying trust remained from the party’s historic policies on Sure Start, early years support and investment in the local area. One of the undecided voters said: “Labour have always been for the working class – couldn’t do any more damage than what the Tories did.” Voters recognised Manchester as being structurally and historically Labour, with a Labour council, Labour Mayor and longstanding traditions linked to Labour. That familiarity created some residual goodwill, with some participants arguing Labour should be given more time to turn around some of the deep problems the country faces. Labour were also seen as a more reliable defence against what was perceived as riskier Green or Reform politics, with one participant describing the party as “better the devil you know”. READ MORE: ‘Someone to bring them together’: The Gorton and Denton by-election campaign from the ground Fear of a ‘wasted vote’ The focus groups revealed that some Labour messaging attacking Reform and the Green Party have had some cut-through among voters. Some of the undecided voters expressed fear that Reform would privatise the NHS, doubted Farage’s credibility if he were ever to become Prime Minister and expressed concern that a win for Reform would legitimise racist attitudes. One female voter considering Reform said: “England is the safest country to live in the world if you’re not a white person. If Reform make it normal… to say racist stuff… I don’t want to vote for Reform if this is going to start causing divides with the colour of somebody’s skin.” The Greens were considered by many participants as a potential “wasted vote” and doubted their ability to wield power nationally – and the party’s drug policy, an issue Labour has utilised in their campaign, was seen as “too far” and being out of touch with concerns about safety in the local community. Subscribe here to our daily newsletter roundup of Labour news, analysis and comment– and follow us on TikTok, Bluesky, WhatsApp, X and Facebook. Share your thoughts. Contribute on this story or tell your own by writing to our Editor. The best letters every week will be published on the site. Find out how to get your letter published. 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