Merz's CDU Set to Push Controversial Reforms After Consolidating Power at Stuttgart Conference

Current Situation: Merz Strengthens Grip on CDU Amid Turbulent Start

German Chancellor Friedrich Merz has successfully consolidated his leadership of the Christian Democratic Union (CDU), securing 91.17% support in his reelection as party chairman at the Stuttgart conference on February 20, 2026. This result, which improved on his 2024 performance of 89.81%, comes after what multiple sources describe as an "irregular" first year in office marked by internal tensions and friction within his CDU/SPD coalition government. The two-day conference, held under the motto "Bound by Responsibility," has already produced significant policy decisions, including a nationwide ban on full face coverings in public spaces—explicitly targeting Islamic garments like burqas and niqabs. The conference took place against a backdrop of pro-EU demonstrations in Stuttgart, Hamburg, Munich, and other European cities, signaling brewing public resistance to the government's direction.

Key Trends and Signals

Several critical patterns emerge from the Stuttgart conference that point toward Germany's near-term political trajectory: **1. Hardening Conservative Social Policy**: The CDU's adoption of the burqa ban (Article 1) represents a significant shift toward stricter cultural integration policies. The Women's Union's framing of the ban as protecting "women's rights and dignity" and promoting "an open society" suggests the party is attempting to co-opt progressive language for conservative cultural policies—a strategy likely designed to counter both the far-right AfD and center-left SPD coalition partners. **2. Categorical Rejection of AfD Cooperation**: Merz's emphatic declaration that he will "not allow AfD to ruin the country" and his categorical exclusion of cooperation with the party—now officially classified as "demonstrably right-wing extremist" by German intelligence services—signals a firm firewall strategy (Articles 2, 3, 6). This hardline stance comes as the CDU faces competitive pressure from AfD in upcoming state elections. **3. Militarization and European Rearmament Focus**: Merz's rhetoric at the conference centered heavily on rearmament and military strength. His statements that "Europe must learn to speak the language of force" and "whoever embraces naive pacifism today is facilitating tomorrow's war" represent a dramatic departure from Germany's post-war military restraint (Articles 5, 7, 8). This shift acknowledges changing geopolitical realities but also serves to differentiate the CDU from its SPD coalition partners, who traditionally favor more dovish positions. **4. Economic Reform Urgency**: Multiple articles note that CDU Secretary General Carsten Linnemann hopes for a "reform package before spring arrives" (Articles 10, 11), while Merz acknowledged Germany needs to "recover the economic strength that characterized it." This suggests imminent policy announcements on economic restructuring. **5. Electoral Pressure from State Contests**: The Stuttgart conference's timing—two weeks before Baden-Württemberg state elections and ahead of four more state elections before September—places enormous pressure on the CDU to demonstrate governing competence and policy clarity (Articles 10, 11).

Predictions: What Happens Next

### Short-Term (Next 2-4 Weeks) **Economic Reform Package Announcement**: The CDU-led government will likely unveil a comprehensive economic reform package before mid-March. According to Article 10, Linnemann's call for reforms "before spring arrives" and the conference's pressure for action make this timing critical. Expect proposals targeting labor market flexibility, pension reform modifications, and business tax incentives designed to reverse Germany's economic stagnation. **Baden-Württemberg Election Focus**: The CDU will deploy its renewed party unity and conference momentum into the March 9 Baden-Württemberg state election. However, the party faces challenges—hosting the conference in Stuttgart while pro-EU demonstrations occurred simultaneously (Article 1) suggests potential backlash to the party's rightward cultural shift. ### Medium-Term (2-6 Months) **Implementation of Face Covering Ban**: Following the conference vote, expect the CDU to push federal legislation banning full face coverings through the Bundestag. This will test coalition stability, as the SPD will face pressure from its left flank and Muslim community organizations. The controversy will likely intensify ahead of the spring and summer state elections, potentially benefiting AfD by legitimizing their cultural rhetoric while allowing them to position themselves as "more authentic" on immigration issues. **Defense Spending Escalation**: Merz's conference rhetoric about European rearmament and "speaking the language of force" signals coming announcements on increased defense spending beyond current commitments. Germany will likely push for EU-wide defense industrial capacity building and may announce major procurement programs. The reported Stark Defence drone contract controversy (Article 9) hints at coming debates over defense industrial policy. **Coalition Tensions Intensify**: The CDU's rightward moves on cultural policy and aggressive rearmament stance will create friction with SPD coalition partners. Expect growing public disagreements between CDU and SPD ministers, particularly on immigration policy and social welfare reforms. The SPD will increasingly need to differentiate itself ahead of the 2029 federal elections. **State Election Challenges**: The CDU faces a difficult electoral landscape through September 2026. While the party hopes to benefit from "chancellor bonus" effects (Article 10), the combination of controversial cultural policies, economic reforms that may create short-term pain, and AfD competition could produce mixed results. Poor performances in any states currently governed by CDU premiers would severely undermine Merz's authority. ### Long-Term Implications (6-12 Months) **Potential Coalition Crisis**: If state election results disappoint and policy conflicts with the SPD intensify, speculation about early federal elections or coalition restructuring will emerge. The CDU's strong conference showing gives Merz internal party security, but governing coalition stability remains fragile. **EU Leadership Ambitions**: Merz's emphasis on Germany as Europe's "driving force" and his calls for European strategic autonomy from the United States suggest Germany will pursue more assertive EU leadership. This positions Germany for potential conflicts with both Washington and EU member states hesitant about militarization or centralization.

The Underlying Dynamic

The Stuttgart conference reveals a CDU attempting to navigate multiple contradictions: maintaining coalition government with the center-left SPD while adopting increasingly conservative cultural policies; rejecting cooperation with AfD while competing for similar voter demographics; and pushing ambitious reforms while facing electoral tests that reward caution. Merz's strong internal mandate gives him room to maneuver, but the challenges ahead—state elections, coalition management, economic headwinds, and geopolitical uncertainty—create significant risks. The coming months will test whether the "unity" displayed in Stuttgart can translate into effective governance or will fracture under the pressure of Germany's multiple crises.